(Download) Gist of Economic Survey 2015-16
(Download) Gist of Economic Survey 2015-16
A flagship annual document of the Ministry of Finance,
Government of India, Economic Survey 2015–16 reviews the developments in the
Indian economy over the previous 12 months, summarizes the performance
on major development programmes, and highlights the policy initiatives of the
government and the prospects of the economy in the short to medium term.
This document is presented to both houses of Parliament during the Budget Session.This document would be useful for policymakers, economists, policy analysts, business practitioners, government agencies, students, researchers, the media, and all those interested in the development in the Indian economy.
Following are the highlights of the report:
FISCAL DEFICIT
- 2016/17 expected to be challenging from fiscal point of view; time is right for a review of mediumterm fiscal framework
- 2015/16 fiscal deficit, seen at 3.9 percent of GDP, seems achievable
- Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5 percent of GDP fiscal deficit target
INFLATION
- CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5 percent in 2016/17
- Low inflation has taken hold, confidence in price stability has improved* Expect RBI to meet 5 percent inflation target by March 2017
- Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen inflationary expectations
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
- 2016/17 current account deficit seen around 1-1.5 percent of GDP
CURRENCY
- Rupee's value must be fair, avoid strengthening; fair value can be achieved through monetary relaxation
- India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in wake of a similar adjustment in China
- Rupee's gradual depreciation can be allowed if capital inflows are weak