World Unprepared for Risks from a Changing Climate: Civil Services Mentor Magazine - June 2014

World Unprepared for Risks from a Changing Climate

Climate Change

Since the arrival of the industrial revolution, in Europe, the visible changes on the face of the earth have increasingly manifested itself, in various forms. However, one of the most horrendous changes, to affect the humankind, is the Climate change.

Climate change, in the context of our ecology, refers to the gradual heating up of the planet, leading to a rise in the global mean temperature. This would cause the melting of the polar ice caps, which is supposed to lead to flood, of greater intensity, and several related disastrous effects on our planet.

Thus, since the last decade of the 20th century, there has been a growing concern towards the process of climate change. Starting from the Rio Summit of 1992, till the contemporary conferences of the various international bodies, the global community has now realized the importance of checking the unsustainable model of growth.

The turning point in the efforts to check the climate change was the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is a scientific, intergovernmental body under the United Nations Organization (UNO), and was set up in 1988, at the request of the member governments, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Presently, it is being chaired by Rajendra K. Pachauri.

The major events in the trajectory of the global efforts against climate change and global warming have been- the Rio Summit, or the Earth Summit of 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997.

However, the main concern has remained unaddressed, as the interests of the different parties have never been cooperative. To address these concerns, and create a sustainable model of development, the various states came together to deliberate upon the process of checking climate change.

IPCC Framework and Mandate

The IPCC produces reports that support the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the main international treaty on climate change. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the environment. The IPCC report covers the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

About Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming

Greenhouse gases refer to those gases that trap the infrared radiation, both- from the sun and the reflected heat from earth, and cause the warming of the atmosphere of the earth. As the solar radiation enters the earth, in the form of short wavelength, the earth surface absorbs the heat and reflect the heat in the form of long-wavelength infrared radiation. The atmosphere of the earth acts as a blanket and prevents this long-wavelength radiation to escape. Thus, the greenhouse effect causes the mean earth temperature to increase gradually.

This concept was given by Joseph Fourier in 1820s.

The main constituents of the Greenhouse gases are- Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Water Vapors and Ozone.

IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena by itself. The project reports of the IPCC is based on the assessment of the published literature, which is based on peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources. However, IPCC has become an internationally accepted authority on climate change. IPCC was granted the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007, which it shared with Al Gore.

IPCC Assessment Report

IPCC has been releasing the Assessment Reports, from time to time, reviewing the contemporary climate science, and setting future agendas. The first Assessment report was produced in 1990, Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995, and the third assessment report (TAR) in 2001. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) came in 2007. The AR4 comprised of contributions from more than 2500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The AR4 observed that-

  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.

  • Most of the global average warming over the past 50 years is “very likely” (greater than 90% probability, based on expert judgement) due to human activities.

  • Impacts of climate change will very likely increase due to increased frequencies and intensities of some extreme weather events.

  • Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries even if Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions were to be reduced sufficiently for GHG concentrations to stabilize, due to the timescales associated with climate processes. Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is discussed in climate change mitigation.

  • Some planned adaptation (of human activities) is occurring now; more extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  • Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.

  • Many impacts [of climate change] can be reduced, delayed or avoided by mitigation.

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