Dangerous moves (The Hindu)
Mains Paper 2: International
Prelims level : US-Iran tussle
Mains level : Rising US-Iran tensions could have disruptive consequences for
India
Context
- US President Donald Trump’s stepped back from the brink of a shooting
war with Iran when he said with his usual bluster that weapons were “cocked
and loaded” to fire against Iran.
- The world can only breathe a sigh of relief Trump refused to proceed
with a military strike despite being reportedly egged on by hard-line
advisors like National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo to attack in retaliation for Iran’s US drone downing.
- Such an action would have had potentially devastating consequences for a
region already wracked by wars and rivalries that have reached a new
intensity in recent years. It would also have plunged the global economy
into turmoil almost instantly.
Decision taken by Trump
- Trump, following his familiar bad cop, good cop, routine now is
extending an olive branch to Iran, saying on the weekend, “Let’s make Iran
great again” and offering to “start all over” with nuclear negotiations.
- He’s even thanked Tehran for not downing a US military plane with dozens
of personnel aboard.
- Trump’s sworn to bring US troops home from conflicts in Afghanistan and
Iraq, and is apparently uneasy about opening a new theatre of conflict and
the prospect of retaliation against US targets across the troubled region.
- Still, while Trump’s retreated from an imminent confrontation with Iran,
the risk of conflict is still very much alive.
- Iran, enraged by US sanctions that have tightened the noose around its
economy and which Trump’s shown no sign of lifting, has hinted that it could
easily launch missile attacks on oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz
through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil supplies flow.
- The Iranian armed forces are said to have built up a formidable arsenal
of missiles that could be used to attack shipping from long distances.
Discovering oil reserves
- The US, which has discovered its own fresh oil reserves, doesn’t depend
on Middle East oil. Even so, oil prices could turn skittish and yet again
rock India’s economy.
- Fears of a skirmish have triggered chaos in the aviation sector, with
flights from India to the US and Europe avoiding Iranian space.
- A US war with Iran could put India in a delicate position.
- Already, there’s deep uncertainty around the future of Chabahar port
being developed with the Iranians that would give India a new route into
Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- The Middle East’s been in disarray almost continuously since the first
shots were fired in the 1980 Iran-Iraq war.
Conclusion
- At the heart of the region’s troubles is the intense rivalry between the
Saudis and the Iranians.
- In the middle are the Israelis who’ve sided with the Saudis.
- The Iranians have warned its stock of uranium is about to exceed limits
set by the 2015 nuclear deal.
- If the Iranians develop their own nuclear weapons, the Saudis would do
their best to follow suit.
- This means there’s no room for any complacency about the region, despite
easing of the immediate Iran crisis.