Delhi must build power-balancing alliance, or come to honourable accommodation with China(Indian Express)

Mains Paper 2:International
Prelims level: Line of actual control
Mains level: India and China boundary settlement

Context:

• Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru has been rightly excoriatedfor his government’s nonchalancein the face of stealthy Chinese incursions into eastern Ladakh in the 1950s and 60s, and the lame justification offered by him for the inaction.
• “Not a blade of grass grows in Aksai Chin,” he told Parliament, suggesting that the loss of this barren plateau was no big deal.

Unmarked LAC:

• The debate has persisted whether it was ...........................................................................

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Failure to negotiate a boundary settlement:

• Post-conflict, it is customary for belligerentsto undertake early negotiations, in order to establish stable peace and eliminate the casus belli.
• Strangely, in the Sino-Indian context, it took 25 years and a serious military confrontation in 1987 to trigger a dialogue — leading the two countries to sign the first-ever Sino-Indian Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (BPTA) in 1993.
• Indian diplomats claim that this has helped maintain “mutual and equal security”, while the bilateral relationship has progressed in other spheres.
• And yet, the failure to negotiate a boundary settlement after 22 meetings of special representatives of the two countries cannot be seen as anything but a failure of statesmanship and diplomacy.

Chinese tactics:

• In stark contrast to India’s vacuous strategic thinking, China’s post-civil war leadership had conceived an early vision of the country’s future.
• Ambitious and realist in scope, this strategy visualised China attaining, in the fullness of time, great-power status and acquiring a nuclear-arsenal.
• Since the vision saw no..........................................................................................

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Land grabs:

• In China’s grand-strategy, an undefined LAC has become a vital instrumentality to embarrass and keep India off-balance through periodic transgressions.
• These pre-meditated “land-grabs”, blunt messages of intimidation and dominance, also constitute a political “pressure-point” for New Delhi.
• While Indian troops have, so far, shown courage and restraint in these ridiculous brawls with the PLA, there is no guarantee that in a future melee, a punch on the nose will not invite a bullet in response.
• In such circumstances, rapid escalation into a “shooting-war” cannot be ruled out.
• Thereafter, should either side face a major military set-back, resort to nuclear “first-use” would pose a serious temptation.

Balancing the power:

• For reasons of national security as well as self-respect, India cannot continue to remain in a “reactive mode” to Chinese provocations and it is time to respond in kind.
• Since India’s choices vis-à-vis China are circumscribed by the asymmetry in comprehensive national power, resort must be sought in realpolitik.
• According to theorist Kenneth Waltz, just as nature abhors a vacuum, international politics abhors an imbalance of power.
• Any country when faced with hegemonic threats, then those states must seek security in one of three options:
• Increase their own strength, ally with others to restore power-balance, or, as a last resort, jump on the hegemon’s bandwagon.

Self-interest:

• India’s decision-makers can start by posing this question to the military: “For how long do you have the wherewithal to sustain a combat against two adversaries simultaneously?”
• Depending on the response, they can consider the options.
• Today, India has greater freedom of action and many options to restore the balance of power vis-à-vis China.
• Even as Xi Jinping opens multiple.....................................................................................................

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Conclusion:

• However, if ideological or other reasons precludethe building of a power-balancing alliance, coming to an honourable accommodation with China remains a pragmatic option.
• The price of finding a modus vivendi for the Sino-Indian border dispute may be worth paying if it neutralises two adversaries at one stroke and buys lasting peace.
• Neither option will be easy to “sell”.
• But given his nationalist credentials, a huge parliamentary majority that has enabled many difficult decisions, Prime Minister Modi is possibly the only leader who can do it.

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Prelims Questions:

Q.1)With reference to the Cyclones, consider the following statements:
1. Cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal side of the north Indian Ocean are more frequent and stonger than those on the Arabian Sea side.
2. The relatively cold waters of the Arabian Sea discourage the kind of very strong cyclones that are formed on the Bay of Bengal side.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Answer..............................

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Mains Questions:
Q.1)For reasons of national security as well as self-respect, India cannot continue to remain in a “reactive mode” to Chinese provocations and it is time to respond in kind. Comment.