Why it is time to end Covid-19 lockdown(Indian Express)

Mains Paper 2:Governance 
Prelims level: Lockdown
Mains level: Purpose of the lockdown and benefits achieved during the process  

Context:

• A three-week lockdown was essential to push out the epidemic curve to June 2020, by which time the country could prepare adequately for the disease. 
• To favour of focused state-level shutdowns rather than a national shutdown, that because of the economic and human costs involved.
• There may have been political and logistical challenges in communicating different messages to different parts of the country. So here we are a month into the big lockdown.

What all have we achieved with the lockdown?

• The number of infections would have been about eight times as much without the lockdown. 
• The rationale for enforced distancing that lockdowns enable is that they temporarily reduce the transmission of infection, which then slows the speed at which an exponential curve can take-off. 
• Without a lockdown, the number of Covid-19 infections was projected to double approximately every three days—roughly the rate that other countries have seen without a lockdown. At this speed, it takes only 66 days to get from 100 infections to 420 million infections. 

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Purpose of lockdown: 

• The purpose of the lockdown was only to buy time. Since March 24, the rate of testing has increased from under 2,000 per day to over 36,000 at the current time. 
• According to the government’s reports, we are now prepared with thousands more ICU beds, supplies of personal protective equipment, organisation of healthcare professionals, clinical protocols and other equipment for critical care.
• All of this preparedness planning should undoubtedly continue. However, each additional day of lockdown is now much less valuable in terms of our ability to prepare and, in effect, we are pushing out the epidemic peak only a little bit. 

Are the benefits worth the costs? 

• In human terms, the consequences are enormous in terms of lost jobs, localised shortages of food and the suffering of the migrants and homeless. 
• Companies have lost significant revenues and will have to lay-off workers. The transportation industry is in shambles, as is the construction industry. 
• The firm Acuité Ratings and Research estimates that every day of lockdown costs the country about `35,000 crore ($4.5 billion). 
• That works as a crude approximation given that about half of the economy of $3 trillion is not functional and assuming about 330 working days. The daily value-add of additional preparation is certainly not anything close to `35,000 crore.
• We could end the lockdown now and spend the additional government revenues from the revival of the economy on increasing testing, containment, hospital beds, critical care and messaging on carrying on distancing. 
• We can achieve much more through continuation of bans on mass gatherings, covering mouths and noses in public, spitting bans, physical distancing to the extent possible in markets, and expanded testing. 
• That would mean no movie theatres, and no large weddings, religious gatherings, sporting events or other social events. 
• Increased testing is the mantra simply because it enables those who are infected to know their infection status and, therefore, to protect their families and community.

High prioritised to reducing stigma:

• If we treat Covid-19 patients like criminals rather than victims of a condition they had no control over, we will find that people will not come forward to be tested. 
• There may be some who think that the lockdown is all that is needed to control Covid-19 and when cases start coming down, we can end the lockdown and we can resume as before. 
• And as testing increases, we will uncover more cases. There is simply no way to stop the epidemic in its tracks.
• The national lockdown was timely and important. It came on the back of early action that India took to stop flights to China, close borders, and trace and quarantine foreign travellers. 
• All of these helped slow down the disease, along with the big lockdown. But the lockdown has achieved its purpose. 
• There is no added value and it is time to go back to work, albeit with some important safety measures. 
• We may yet need another lockdown or two before the end of the year to curb the sharp rise of the disease, and it is important to keep some powder dry for these situations.

Conclusion: 

• However, it is how we effectively control disease transmission and maintain infection prevention and control behaviour post-lockdown and not the continuation of the lockdown that will determine the future trajectory of Covid-19 in India.

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Online Coaching for UPSC PRE Exam

General Studies Pre. Cum Mains Study Materials

Prelims Questions:

Q.1)With reference to the ZOOM video communication, consider the following statements:
1. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has issued an advisory that ZOOM video conference is not a safe platform. 
2. The software used in the online platform is said to be made in China and some calls were being routed through servers in China. 

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Answer.................

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Mains Questions:
Q.1)What are the major objectives behind the lockdown? To what extend that we have achieved its purpose. Comment. Do you think extending lockdown is still require at this moment? Justify your answer with examples.