THE GIST of Editorial for UPSC Exams : 30 April 2020 (It is now essential to begin end of lockdown (Indian Express))

It is now essential to begin end of lockdown (Indian Express)

Mains Paper 2:Governance
Prelims level: Lockdown
Mains level: Arguments behind to exiting from the lockdown

Context:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi held his fourth round of consultations with state governments on April 27 to review the COVID-19 situation.
The draconian lockdown, which completes 40 days on May 3, was discussed.
As in the earlier meetings, several chief ministers urged that the lockdown be extended. While no decision was announced, the lockdown might well continue.

Experience from lockdown:

For governments everywhere, more so after the experience of Italy, Britain and the United States, where governments did too little too late, imposing and continuing lockdowns is a risk-averse strategy.
If the spread can be curbed, it would bring political kudos. If it is not, the microbe is to blame.
It is the equivalent of a one-way option in financial markets, where you cannot lose. This is even more attractive now as it conforms to herd-behaviour by governments worldwide.

Real dilemma from exiting lockdown:

Exit from a lockdown poses a real dilemma for governments.
It is about decision-making under high uncertainty, which requires conviction and confidence.
This dilemma will always be larger than life when there is a single objective of saving lives in a pandemic.
But it must also be recognised that the health of people and the health of an economy are interdependent, where both shape the wellbeing of people. Thus, saving livelihoods is an equally important objective.

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Importance of lockdown:

Lockdowns, combined with mass-testing, contact-tracing, containment-zones, mandatory-quarantines, can only slow down the speed at which the infection spreads.
This might help in countries where public health facilities are robust, yet not adequate for large numbers.
But our public health system is poor and could never suffice for our large population if the pandemic spreads.
There is no vaccine yet. From development through trials to production will be at least one year, and far longer before it becomes available in sufficient quantities for our massive population.

Begin the process of exit from the lockdown:

It would enable the government to find some balance between the twin objectives of saving lives and saving livelihoods.
It would help restart the economy, which has been almost completely shut down, and the collateral damage is bound to be far greater if the lockdown is extended.
A calibrated, planned and phased exit could also help manage the spread of the virus. So far, morbidity and mortality associated with
Lower COVID-19 cases in India is possibly attributable to our immune systems, which have antibodies that could be effective in resisting the virus.
It suggests that there are already some elements of herd-immunity in India that would grow stronger as the lockdown is lifted slowly.
The economic and social consequences of the lockdown have been severe.
A large proportion of the self-employed, casual workers on daily wages, and informal workers, who constitute 90 per cent of the total workforce, have lost their livelihoods.
Demand has dropped sharply as employment has contracted. Supply has been strangled by the massive reduction in output.
Government revenues, for both Centre and states, have collapsed. And, even if the lockdown is lifted now, economic growth during 2020-21 would be zero or negative.
For the poor – 75 per cent of rural households and 50 per cent of urban households – food security is at risk. It is a matter of survival.
For micro-small-medium enterprises, their survival is at stake. Large firms, except those with deep pockets, will also struggle.
Whatever the government might stipulate, most firms will find it difficult to pay the wages of their employees, for these will only add to their cash losses during the lockdown.
Healthcare for patients, except those with COVID-19, has diminished in terms of both access and quality.
In education, learning outcomes, already poor, will get worse as schools and colleges remain closed.
In every sphere, the short-term effects of the lockdown will have long-term consequences – hysteresis – as future outcomes will be shaped by this past.

Way ahead:

For the economy, the sooner the lockdown is lifted the better.
But the process of exit from the lockdown will have to be in calibrated steps based on a planned transition path in terms of sequence and speed.
In this phasing, the geographical size and diversity of India provide degrees of freedom that are missing in most countries.
Economic activity can be resumed in districts without infections and in green zones.
The orange zone districts can be brought in as they turn green.
The lockdown should continue in states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi (with limited relaxations where possible) and in red zone districts, containment-zones or hot spots within cities, as long as necessary.

Conclusion:

In this decision to begin exit from the lockdown, PM Modi will need to act with the same confidence as he did when imposing the lockdown.

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Prelims Questions:

Q.1)With reference to the containment plan, consider the following statements:
1. A containment zone has been defined based on the index case / cluster, which will be the designated epicentre, the listing and mapping of contacts, geographical distribution of cases and contacts around the epicentre and the administrative boundaries within urban cities /town/ rural area.
2. Cluster containment strategy refers to contain the disease within a defined geographic area after early detection, breaking the chain of transmission and preventing its spread to new areas.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 only
(b) 2 only
(c) Both 1 and 2
(d) Neither 1 nor 2