Borrow abroad and profit (Mint)
Mains Paper 3: Economy
Prelims level : Foreign Bond
Mains level : Issuing bond in forien currency
Context
The government is planning to issue 10 year bonds denominated in foreign
currency.
Background behind this idea
- Such borrowing would be cheaper because dollar or yen interest rates are
lower than rupee interest rates.
- Our debt to GDP ratio is not very high, the exchange rate is stable, and
foreign exchange reserves are high. So foreign borrowing, if its long term,
is not a problem.
- If foreign bond issuance was accompanied by a move towards greater
capital account convertibility then it may be worth pursuing.
- A country pays a country premium for borrowing in dollars; currently,
the US 10-year bond is trading at 2%. A complex set of factors determine the
country’s premium, but the magnitude of reserves and foreign currency debt
are important attributes. India has less debt denominated in foreign
currency, close to 5%. Thus, we should be able to borrow at a somewhat lower
premium than 150 bp, possibly 130bp.
- Indian inflation has moved structurally downward over the last three
years.
- It will also help to significantly lower the real repo rate to
respectable levels.
Major problems with these bonds
- Usually, the lower dollar interest rate is offset in the long run by
higher principal repayments as the rupee depreciates against the dollar.
- Loss of sovereignty and may lead to currency depreciation
Conclusion
- No country has grown at “trend” rates with a real repo rate of around
3.4%, not even 2.4% or 2%. Issuing bonds now is an idea whose time has come.
- Cross-country evidence supports the conclusion that the sooner India
engages in foreign currency borrowing, the quicker it can profit from this
market imperfection.